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Using Earthquake Intensities To Forecast Earthquake Occurrence Times
Holliday, J R- Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 United States
Rundle, J B - Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 United States
Tiampo, K F - Department of Earth Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ONT N6A 5B8 Canada
Turcotte, D L - Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 United States
It is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the recognized patterns in seismicity. Our current research indicates that the occurrences of large earthquakes in southern California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to simple random clustering. By studying the systematic fluctuations in smaller subregions, we attempt to identify spatial locations within the time interval where the correlations are highest. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world. In particular, we analize Japan, Taiwan, and Sumatra and show there is potential for forecasting local earthquakes.
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